[ the surest route to our common good]

From the archive July 2003

Sexy And Really Scary
By Lance Frank
SARS may just be a sexy name for the flu,
but that shouldn’t make you feel better.

The global fear of SARS came dangerously close to home earlier this year when
Toronto was placed on the World Health Organizations “avoid” list for travelers,
an act tantamount to a quarantine. Toronto tourism officials reaction called to
mind Larry, the Polyester Chamber of Commerce President in “Jaws” when the
Chief of Police Brody begged for permission to close the beaches to keep more
tourists from being eaten. Ignoring what seemed to be a clear and present danger,
they protested loudly then defiantly relocated conventions to Toronto to mitigate
the economic impact of the WHO designation.

It was easy to sit in judgment of Toronto Officials until two potential cases of
SARs were identified here in the Coachella Valley, one in Palm Springs, the
other in Indio. I must confess my first reaction was more like Larry’s. Its hard
enough trying to sell cranky merchants advertising under normal circumstances,
let alone Internet advertising. If there was a quarantine it would be impossible.
The Chief Brody in me knew closing the beach would be the best thing to do,
but only if there really was a shark out there. I began an investigation to find out.

The symptoms of SARS sound remarkably similar to the ordinary old fashioned
garden variety flu and pneumonia. The age of the victims, mostly elderly and
infirmed, were also similar. Encouraged by my accurate prediction in May
during my on line audio commentaries that the incidence and mortality of SARS
would drop off precipitously with the end of flu season, I began investigating
with the premise that these diseases were in fact one and the same. Lacking
access to an electronmicroscope (or any microscope for that matter) my
approach was to look for statistical information to prove my theory. A
precipitous drop in the flu cases and flu mortality world wide during the
epidemic roughly equal to rise of SARS occurrence would do the trick.

Global statistics on SARS infection and mortality are easy to find. As of 7/11/03
the World Health Organization reported 8,437 cases of SARS diagnosed and
813 deaths. That’s a mortality rate of 9.6%, well above the epidemic threshold
of 7.5%. It is a well know fact that the epidemic was most severe in Asia with
almost 8,000 of the reported cases (94%) and 762 of the deaths (93%). Though
most of the cases reported were in mainland China (5327) with the most deaths
(348), the mortality rate was only 6.5%, well below the threshold. Hong Kong
however, with only 1755 cases had the highest mortality rate, almost 17%.
 These statistics support the contention that the disease first emerged in Hong
Kong then rapidly spread to mainland China before it was recognized and efforts
made to contain it. By the time the virus started to gain its toe hold in Toronto
warmer weather had set in the United States and with it the typical end of flu
season. Toronto’s colder climate may have been what facilitated the outbreak
there. Its medical facilities and overall standard of living are comparable to most
US cities suggesting these were not a factor in the abatement of the epidemic.

OK. So what about the flu? Was there a drop in flu and pneumonia during the
SARS epidemic? I was surprised to find that after hours of drilling the World
Health Organization web site that global statistics for flu and pneumonia were
not available. I sent them an e-mail requesting the information but after several
months have not received a reply. I was however able to find a wealth of United
States statistical flu and pneumonia information on the Center for Disease
Control Web Site.

The United States may have escaped SARS in 2003, but back in 2000, we
were hit by something and we were hit hard. For some reason it never achieved
the celebrity of SARS. Maybe its because the name “Millennium Bug” had
already been taken to describe a mythical computer virus that had the potential
to bring about the end of the world. We were so busy worrying that our computers
would crash that we just didn’t notice that statistically people all around us were
dropping like flies. Maybe we were just having too much fun partying to notice.
But by the time the parties were all over 10,000 Americans had come down with
a very nasty flu and almost 12% of them had died. Remember, the SARS global
mortality rate stands at only 9.6%. We can only imagine what the death toll was
globally of this un named killer. Our computers, however, kept working just fine,
thank you.

From the reports that are available it appears that 2003 was a very mild flu season
. However, the hard statistical numbers I was looking for to prove my theory that
SARS and the Flu are one and the same just aren’t readily available. But my
research suggests that more than likely SARS and whatever hit the US in 2000
were indeed the flu. Specifically, Influenzavirus A which according to WHO can
change suddenly in a process known as antigenic shift into “a new virus strain to
which populations have no immunity and against which no existing vaccine may
confer protection.” They warn that such strains have killed millions in pandemics
which can be expected to occur on average three to four times each century.
The last one was in the 50’s. Some officials say we’re due.

So who was it that gave an old disease a new name and why? My first guess was
the pharmaceutical companies. I figured one of them wanted a patent on a cure
and had to come up with a trademarkable name. But so far as I know, no one has
trademarked the name “SARs”. Cures you can trademark and patent. But diseases?
Not unless you want to claim credit for breeding them. Oh, but then there’s that
liability thing.

Our next candidate is the News Media. The “Flu” is old news. Its an excuse to take
a sick day off from work, not a global killer of millions stalking the Earth. Nothing to
fear. Try writing an interesting headline with “Influenzavirus A Strain H1N1, H2N2,
H3N2”. Try reading it on the air. Even the redundancy of “Severe” and “Acute” to
describe a Respiratory Syndrome from which the acronym is derived suggests
someone had to work real hard to make it up. A good story on SARS can get you
a Pulitzer. On The Flu? Don’t think so. If one day we really do have a pandemic on
our hands it will be one of the stories of the century. Might as well get some ratings
out of it.

No discussion of conspiracies would be complete without considering The Government’s
possible involvement. If they can get the ratings hungry media to buy into a make-over
of the common flu into The Plague Redux they’ve got a great excuse to shut down a city
if they think terrorists are trying to get in or out. I hate to say it, but I just don’t think the
government is that smart. The truth is, a naturally occurring pandemic is reason enough
to shut down a city with or without terrorists, or bio terrorists for that matter. Besides,
shutting down a city for a valid reason is the best practice I can think of to thwart the
plans of the latter.

Of course there’s always the possibility of complicity between the three. Big Pharma
advised Government of an imminent pandemic and Government asked The Media to
help get the public ready and Media thought up something Sexy And Really Scary to
get the public’s attention. That would have taken an unusually high degree of
cooperation between three huge and typically uncooperative bureaucratic hierarchies
in a very short period of time. I lean towards the News Media working alone in a rare
instance of greed and lust for glory having the unintended side effect of providing a public
service. But in fairness I must add that there's nothing wrong with serving the public and
making a buck at the same time. "Doing well by doing good" as they say.

So just because SARS might actually be the flu shouldn’t make you feel better. There's
a shark out there all right. There always is. Just what kind and how big we don't know.
There are many species of Shark in the ocean which can have you for lunch, but ever
since Hollywood made the movie, the one we fear the most is the Great White. Why
do you think they called it “Jaws?” Just Another White Shark? That wouldn't have been
very scary now, would it?